Loved this, and so guilty of much of the behaviour that feels smart but really isn't, falling into the trap of brilliant excuses.
It makes me realise how load bearing the word "truth" is in Peter Thiel's famous question - "What important truth do very few people agree with you on?”. It's easy to focus on the importance (impact) or "few people" (contrarian) view of your ideas and completely miss the reality.
The best founders pursue reality relentlessly. They've mastered the distinction between earned conviction—built on hard evidence and market feedback—and performed conviction, which relies on belief alone. This discipline separates those who build enduring companies from those who chase mirages.
2. The Three Falsification Tests
Instead of seeking confirmation, pressure-test your assumptions:
➜ Is the problem real? Look for evidence that people have already invested time or money trying to solve it.
➜ Can this person act? Move beyond interest—would they actually buy?
➜ Does the business model work? Will they pay enough to make the unit economics viable?
Deploy these tests early and often. The faster you invalidate weak assumptions, the sooner you find what actually works.
3. The Founder-VC Asymmetry
VCs operate on power law economics: 20 bets, 1-2 home runs, portfolio justified. Founders face a fundamentally different game. You can't diversify your life. The years invested in a failing venture don't return compound interest—they're simply gone.
This asymmetry demands a higher bar: founders must be more rigorous and faster at identifying what isn't working. Your edge isn't just conviction—it's the speed and honesty with which you course-correct.
My Approach: The Strategic Opportunity Architect
I'm developing a framework that enables founders to pursue multiple high-potential projects simultaneously, capitalizing on AI-driven execution, becoming more accessible and affordable each day. This challenges the traditional "one bet" constraint. Interested in exploring this further? Let's connect on LinkedIn or drop me a line.
Alan Kay said it best: "The best way to predict the future is to invent it."
We have the luxury of launching our products DTC first, and my audience knows to tell me the truth, even if it annoys me to hear it. Thank you for a great article!!
Loved this, and so guilty of much of the behaviour that feels smart but really isn't, falling into the trap of brilliant excuses.
It makes me realise how load bearing the word "truth" is in Peter Thiel's famous question - "What important truth do very few people agree with you on?”. It's easy to focus on the importance (impact) or "few people" (contrarian) view of your ideas and completely miss the reality.
Key Insights from This Article:
1. Truth-Seeking Over Validation
The best founders pursue reality relentlessly. They've mastered the distinction between earned conviction—built on hard evidence and market feedback—and performed conviction, which relies on belief alone. This discipline separates those who build enduring companies from those who chase mirages.
2. The Three Falsification Tests
Instead of seeking confirmation, pressure-test your assumptions:
➜ Is the problem real? Look for evidence that people have already invested time or money trying to solve it.
➜ Can this person act? Move beyond interest—would they actually buy?
➜ Does the business model work? Will they pay enough to make the unit economics viable?
Deploy these tests early and often. The faster you invalidate weak assumptions, the sooner you find what actually works.
3. The Founder-VC Asymmetry
VCs operate on power law economics: 20 bets, 1-2 home runs, portfolio justified. Founders face a fundamentally different game. You can't diversify your life. The years invested in a failing venture don't return compound interest—they're simply gone.
This asymmetry demands a higher bar: founders must be more rigorous and faster at identifying what isn't working. Your edge isn't just conviction—it's the speed and honesty with which you course-correct.
My Approach: The Strategic Opportunity Architect
I'm developing a framework that enables founders to pursue multiple high-potential projects simultaneously, capitalizing on AI-driven execution, becoming more accessible and affordable each day. This challenges the traditional "one bet" constraint. Interested in exploring this further? Let's connect on LinkedIn or drop me a line.
Alan Kay said it best: "The best way to predict the future is to invent it."
Let's build it.
Really enjoyable read Mike, thank you for sharing.
You may enjoy reading about a historic, drastically different world view:
https://open.substack.com/pub/jordannuttall/p/the-medieval-understanding-of-reality?r=4f55i2&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay
excellent article!
Only founders who don't do marketing, need validation
We have the luxury of launching our products DTC first, and my audience knows to tell me the truth, even if it annoys me to hear it. Thank you for a great article!!